Free Rise

Greg Cote asks in this morning’s Miami Herald whether the first-place Miami Dolphins are actually that good. They play the New York Jets for the AFC East title on Sunday, and a win would cap off one of the most extraordinary one-year turnarounds in pro sports history.

Cote is smart to ask the question. While the Dolphins are 10-5, the AFC East has enjoyed the benefit of playing both conferences’ craptastic West divisions this season. Even within that lineup of opponents they’ve had generous scheduling, hosting all the west coast teams in Miami and never venturing further than Denver. They even got to play their dreaded late-season Buffalo game inside a dome in Toronto.

Few of the 10 wins have been super-impressive, nothing like the consecutive thrashings that New England put on the Raiders and Cardinals. But the fact of the matter is that the Dolphins won those games, and they’re 10-5. Are 9-6 teams like the Cowboys, Vikings, or Bears better teams? To put together the 10 wins, the Dolphins have demonstrated efficient passing, inventive offense, record-low turnovers, effective blitzing, and a defense that gets mean in the red zone.

Every top team in the league has fatal flaws. The Titans have a sketchy passing game. The Colts can’t run the ball at all. The Steelers can’t block. The Giants’ defense has softened. The Panthers wilt away from their home stadium.

The Dolphins are similarly flawed.

They don’t score enough points. How are the Dolphins #11 in the league in yards, but only #21 in points, while turning over the ball less than any team in history? It’s mind-boggling, but the simple answer is they rank #23 in third down conversions. The Dolphins run too many lovely drives that just peter out.

They can’t score quickly. While Pennington has excelled at clock-devouring fourth-quarter drives, the Dolphins haven’t demonstrated that they can run up fast points when they need them.

They can’t stop big receivers. The Patriots, Texans, Chiefs, Cardinals, and others had great confidence in chucking the ball downfield on the Dolphins’ DBs. Honestly, if I had a Moss or Andre Johnson against the Dolphins, I’m not sure why I’d run any plays other than “Chuck It to the Big Guy” and “Dump It to the TE so they don’t blitz every down.”

I think the Dolphins will beat the Jets on Sunday. The Fish have won 7 of 8, while the Jets have lost 3 of 4. But this rivalry has a wacky intensity (see the Monday Night Miracle, the Fake Spike, the 51-45 Wesley Walker Explosion), where momentum is worth a laugh. But this Dolphins team seems to screw up less than their opponents, and at this point in the season that means a lot.

Eighteen words.

That’s the total copy that the NY Post could accommodate above the fold.

Can you spot the article?

The ultra-volatile NFL is finally smiling on Miami this year.

That’s right. The Miami Dolphins, a 1-15 nightmare last season – are in first place. They’ve won six out of their last seven, and If they win their last three games, they win the division. The Fish still need to beat the Jets in the Meadowlands on 12/28 (and two games before it) to make it happen.

What is behind America’s greatest pro sports turnaround this season? Where do we start?

Bill Parcells: When Dolfanland heard that the Tuna was coming out of retirement to work the Dolphins front office, we were overjoyed. He fired the flailing failures and brought in stronger minds. In fact, it reminds me of another high-profile transition of power happening right now.

Jeff Ireland: Although bad QBing has been the primary focus of Dolphin failures since Marino retired, the personnel rot went deeper than that. Jimmy Johnson was a great talent evaluator, and it’s telling that the best players on the roster that Ireland inherited were JJ’s draft picks, given that JJ retired 10 years ago. Dolphins drafts ranged from mediocre to disastrous, and the interior lines were given especially short shrift. It’s telling that Ireland found more solid undrafted rookies than Nick Saban or Randy Mueller found in the draft.

Chad Pennington: He is simply the first competent Dolphins QB in a decade, or longer if you count Marino’s career after age 35. Pennington’s arm and aim are amazing. He throws in three dimensions better than any QB I’ve ever seen, lofting balls over zones and spreading the ball to all corners of the field. And he’s vastly outperformed Brett Favre, for whom the Jets jettisoned Pennington.

Davone Bess: He’s the new Wes Welker. The guy’s gone from undrafted Hawaii run-n-shooter, to NFL starter. He runs great routes, he gets open underneath, and he catches everything tossed in his direction. He seems to have a tendency to run backwards after the catch, but you gotta love the little guy. Hopefully they don’t trade him to New England.

Dan Carpenter: Undrafted rookie kicker has been a marvel.

Turnovers: The Dolphins are #1 in the NFL with a +12 turnover margin. They’re on pace to set a record for fewest giveaways in a 16-game season.

Pass rush: Led by Joey Porter and a scheme that often blitzes DBs, the Dolphins are #8 in sacks.

Yeremiah Bell: Unheralded SS has no picks, but makes innumerable big tackles.

Beating crappy teams: The Dolphins have had an enviably easy schedule, having run a circuit through the NFC West and AFC West. But unlike the 2007 version of the team, the Dolphins have won the winnables.

It’s hard to envision this 8-5 team winning a playoff game against the Steelers, Colts, or Patriots. (Maybe the Titans. Something feels one-dimensional about them.) But it’s nice to be caring about December games for the first time in forever.

Go Dolphins.

I recently counseled a good friend who was enduring a tough financial situation. He was supporting his family on his middle-class income with no health care benefits. That’s a precarious enough situation in America today, but he and his wife had also run up a whole lot of debt.

My friend was embarrassed about his largesse, but I assured him that it’s an all-too-common situation around the world these days. Although I tried to focus on his next steps, I couldn’t help wondering about the financial system that created this mess. Somehow multiple lenders decided to keep extending them more and more credit, well beyond their ability to pay.

The average household does not have a subprime mortgage, but it does bear more than $10,000 in credit card debt. The failure of subprime mortgages is thus the mere tip of the credit iceberg. As layoffs and foreclosures mount, credit card defaults will presumably increase as well. While each default will be much smaller than a mortgage foreclosure, the potential volume is beyond scary.

The NY Times Executive Suite blog exposed an insider’s view last week in the self-explanatory “The Worst is Yet to Come: Anonymous Banker Weighs in on the Coming Credit Crisis.” It’s well worth a read, just in case you think you’re seeing light at the end of the economic tunnel.